Life without Pep Guardiola: Will Manchester City be able to avoid the United trap?

As Manchester City approaches the final year of Pep Guardiola’s contract, uncertainty about the club’s future following his departure becomes increasingly palpable. Guardiola, who has been the archetype of success in modern football, is set to leave the Etihad Stadium, and the question lingering in the air is: can City avoid the same fate that their eternal rival, Manchester United, faced after Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure?

The decline of Manchester United since 2013 serves as a warning for City. The first major mistake made by the Red Devils was allowing Ferguson to choose his successor, David Moyes, a decision that proved catastrophic. Rumors suggest that City is aware of this risk and, rather than following the same path, is adopting a more analytical approach. President Khaldoon Al Mubarak and the new sporting director, Hugo Viana, are already drawing up a list of potential successors, including Enzo Maresca, who was Guardiola’s assistant during the historic season in which the club won the treble.

Another critical error by the United was the rapid disbandment of Ferguson’s coaching staff, which compromised the continuity of a winning culture. To avoid making the same mistake, City began to ensure administrative and recruitment stability long before Guardiola’s departure, by bringing in Hugo Viana from Sporting CP. This decision aims to ensure that, regardless of who occupies the bench, the club’s structure remains strong and resilient.

Since Ferguson’s departure, Manchester United has been on a true rollercoaster of coaches, ranging from the pragmatic approach of José Mourinho, to the focus on “DNA” by Ole Gunnar Solskjær, and the tactical rigidity of Erik ten Hag and Rubén Amorim. This cycle of uncertainties has generated a crisis of identity and an uncontrolled investment of around £1.5 billion in transfers, without tangible results. What is clear for City is that the system must be stronger than the man who leads it.

As Guardiola approaches what many consider to be his “Last Dance,” the hierarchy at City is fully aware that replacing someone of his stature and quality is an almost impossible task. However, by prioritizing structural stability over individual personality — a bitter lesson learned from the past 13 years of despair at Old Trafford — Manchester City can ensure that their “Blue Moon” does not fade into the same darkness that engulfed their neighbors.

The future of Manchester City is uncertain, but one thing is clear: they are determined to do things differently and to maintain their rise in the world of football, regardless of what the future holds after Pep Guardiola. The lessons of the past are being studied, and the hope is that history does not repeat itself.