“Aryna Sabalenka eliminated early at the Italian Open: The impact on the leadership.”

Aryna Sabalenka saw her reign at the top of women’s tennis threatened after a shocking defeat in the third round of the 2026 Italian Open, a setback that could change the dynamics in the race for the world number one against the relentless Elena Rybakina. The Belarusian star, currently ranked number one in the world, was stunned by 27th-ranked Sorana Cirstea, losing 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 in a match that exposed weaknesses and raised questions about her physical and mental form.

Sabalenka, 28, appeared to be in control of the match as she led by a set and a break in the second set but failed to maintain her level. “I felt like I didn’t play well from start to finish,” the Belarusian confessed in the post-match press conference. “I started very well, but I ended up lowering my performance. I felt like my body didn’t allow me to play at the highest level. She came on court and played incredible tennis, practically not giving me any opportunities.” These words reveal an unexpected moment of vulnerability for an athlete used to dominating top-level matches.

This defeat at the Foro Italico is the earliest for Sabalenka since her exit in the first round of the Qatar Open in February 2025, signaling a potentially worrying trend. Her struggle with possible injuries and the constant pressure on the circuit seems to be undermining her consistency, something that had already begun to be visible after her loss in the quarter-finals of the Madrid Open to Hailey Baptiste, an event that had already reduced her lead over the second-ranked player, Elena Rybakina.

Regarding the race for the top of the WTA rankings, the impact of this result is immediate and significant. Before the start of the Italian Open, Sabalenka held 10,110 points, but by failing to replicate her achievement from last year — when she reached the quarter-finals — her total dropped to 9,960 points, a net loss of 150 points.

Meanwhile, Rybakina, who entered the tournament with 8,555 points and was defending the 65 points from the third round of the previous year, seized the opportunity to climb in the rankings by securing a place in the round of 16 and accumulating 120 points, raising her total to 8,610 points. The gap between the two has narrowed to just 1,350 points, making the race for the world number one more competitive than ever.

The 26-year-old Kazakh is now just one step away from closing the gap even further: if she wins her next match against Karolina Pliskova, she will advance to the quarter-finals and add 8,705 points. Progressing to the semi-finals, the final, or even winning the title could catapult her to numbers that seriously threaten the position of the current leader.

This scenario places Sabalenka at a critical crossroads: regain form and confidence to maintain her top spot, or see her leadership threatened by a Rybakina who is becoming increasingly solid and determined to claim the number 1 spot for the first time in her career.

With the clay court season in full swing, the outcome of this battle for the throne of women’s tennis is far from decided. What is certain is that any slip-up could be costly, and Sabalenka urgently needs to find answers to avoid losing her title as queen of the WTA.

Stay tuned for the upcoming rounds of the Italian Open, where every point won or lost could make all the difference in this epic struggle for the top of world tennis.

This article first appeared on Apito Final.