The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational promises to be an epic battle at Bay Hill, where the world’s best golfers prepare to face the demands of a punishing course. With 72 of the top competitors gathered, this tournament is not just a showcase of talent but also a rigorous test of skill. The competition is marked by a stringent cut and a historic nine-year streak where the course has played over par. With a prize of $4 million, 700 FedExCup points, and a three-year exemption, the pressure is at an all-time high. Here are the five players with the best chance to challenge the current favorite, Scottie Scheffler.
**1. Scottie Scheffler (+333)**
Scheffler, the world number one, is undoubtedly the favorite, with odds of +333. He has already won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2022 and 2024, and his statistical performances in 2026 continue to impress. With a total Strokes Gained of 2.398, he leads the PGA Tour, demonstrating unmatched mastery in his shots. He ranks second in Off the Tee and seventh in Tee-to-Green, showcasing his ability to control the game from long distances. The results speak for themselves: victories at the American Express, a third place at the WM Phoenix Open, and a fourth at Pebble Beach cement his position as the favorite. His ability to maintain patience and precision will be crucial at Bay Hill.
**2. [Rory McIlroy](https://apitofinal.pt/modalidades/tenis/carlos-alcaraz-e-aryna-sabalenka-destacam-se-nos-nomeados-dos-premios-laureus/) (+900)**
Rory McIlroy, with odds of +900, emerges as a strong contender. A winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2018, he brings extensive experience from Bay Hill to the competition. With a Strokes Gained Total of 2.396, he ranks second on the tour, particularly excelling in Approach and Tee-to-Green. McIlroy has shown solid performance recently, finishing second at the Genesis Invitational and fourteenth at Pebble Beach. If he can fine-tune his putting on the challenging greens of Bay Hill, the combination of his iron skills and course management could lead him to victory once again.
**3. Collin Morikawa (+2200)**
With odds of +2200, Collin Morikawa is a name to watch. Although he has yet to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he finished second last year and secured a significant victory in 2026 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Morikawa is one of the best in Approach, ranking sixth, but faces challenges in putting, where he is ranked 131st. His short game skills will be crucial for competing at Bay Hill, where precision is key.
**4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)**
Fleetwood, with odds of +1800, is considered the fourth best on the list. Although he has yet to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his performance in previous editions is encouraging, having finished T-11 in the last edition. With a Strokes Gained Total of 2.145, he ranks fifth, and his proficiency Around the Green, where he is the best on the PGA TOUR, will be an asset at Bay Hill. If he can improve his iron game, Fleetwood may very well find his way to the top.
**5. Shane Lowry (+4000)**
Last but not least, Shane Lowry enters the race with odds of +4000. Although he has yet to win at Bay Hill, he had a solid performance finishing seventh in the last edition. With a total Strokes Gained of 1.762, he ranks seventh, showing a good balance in his game. However, his performance Off the Tee and Around the Green needs attention. If Lowry can manage his mistakes, he could be a dangerous competitor.
From March 5 to 8, expectations are high. Scottie Scheffler may be the frontrunner, but the others are ready to put up a fight. Who will be able to overcome the two-time champion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and take home the coveted trophy? The excitement promises to be intense!
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