“Portugal can have 4 teams in the Champions: and SC Braga is the initial piece of the puzzle.”

Portugal still dreams big: the possibility of having four teams in the next edition of the UEFA Champions League is not officially ruled out, but it is an almost epic scenario that depends on an improbable conjunction of results and achievements. Although mathematically possible, this outcome will require true miracles in European football, with SC Braga at the center of this continental battle.

The starting point of this race is the UEFA Europa League, where SC Braga needs to win to secure a direct spot in the group stage of the Champions League as the defending champion, just like Tottenham did last season, despite finishing only 17th in the Premier League. With this victory, the Portuguese Primeira Liga champion would enter directly into the group stage, the national runner-up would still have to compete in the third qualifying round, and the second-placed team in the Portuguese league could benefit from a direct promotion to the group stage, but only if Aston Villa wins the Europa League and finishes in the top four of the English league.

But beyond the victory for Braga, the challenge becomes even more Herculean: Portugal would need to surpass Spain and Germany in the UEFA annual coefficient ranking, currently led by Spain with 21.405 points, followed by Germany with 21.214, and Portugal in third with 20.100 points. To reach second place, Portugal needs a total of at least 21.500 points. This means that SC Braga must win all three remaining matches in the Europa League without any draws, as any draw would eliminate the possibility of surpassing the Spanish and German giants.

Moreover, the Spanish teams still competing in European competitions – Atlético de Madrid, which faces Arsenal in the Champions League semi-finals, and Rayo Vallecano, which is vying for a spot in the Conference League final against Strasbourg – must lose all their matches. Even a draw for these teams would raise Spain’s points to 21.530, exceeding the maximum that Portugal can achieve.

The pressure also falls on the German teams. Freiburg, which faces SC Braga, needs to lose both matches, while Bayern, which recently lost in Paris, cannot win the match next week against PSG. A draw for the Bavarians would already provide enough points to keep Germany ahead, with 21.357 points, still above Portuguese ambitions.

This scenario, calculated by experts from X Football Meets Data, has a minuscule probability of 0.2%, almost an impossible feat. But if, against all expectations, everything aligns in favor of Portugal, the outcome would be historic: the top two teams from the Primeira Liga would join SC Braga in the Champions League group stage, while the third-placed team would secure access to the third qualifying round. As for the spots in the other European competitions, the fifth-placed team, or Torreense if they win the Taça de Portugal, would guarantee entry into the Europa League, and the sixth-placed team, or the fifth if Torreense becomes the cup champion, would enter the qualifying rounds of the Conference League.

Believing in this scenario is almost an act of faith, but Portuguese ambition is set: having four teams among the European football elite is a goal that, despite being remote, keeps the country on high alert for the upcoming European matches. Portuguese football breathes this possibility as the European night unfolds its decisive chapters.

This article first appeared on Apito Final.