A Premier League is heating up and Arsenal is feeling the weight of pressure: after months at the top, the Gunners now see Manchester City under Pep Guardiola equalizing their points and surpassing them in the standings on goal difference. With only five matches remaining, the question looming is clear and urgent: does Arsenal need to change its mentality to secure the title?
Mikel Arteta did not hide the tension after the 1-0 defeat to City last Sunday, stating that “it’s a new league now.” And, following the citizens’ victory over Burnley on Wednesday, this new phase has been officially confirmed. Both clubs have 70 points, with a goal difference of +37, but it is City that leads due to having scored more goals.
Arsenal, which spent an impressive 209 days at the top of the Premier League, has seen the advance of their Manchester rival, motivated by a recent unconvincing record: just six wins in the last 13 league matches. The opportunity to extend their lead slipped away, especially after consecutive defeats to Bournemouth and City themselves.
Wayne Rooney, former forward and specialist in decisive moments, issued a crucial warning during an edition of his podcast on BBC. Reflecting on the 2011-12 season, when Manchester United lost the title to City on goal difference, Rooney recalled the advice of the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson: “You always have to try to score, because the league can be decided on goal difference.” Rooney emphasized that, despite the pressure, he still considers Arsenal slightly favored, but with a vital condition: “Arsenal has been trying to win 1-0, but they need to change that mentality and go after their opponents, winning by three or four goals.”
This advice is not to be taken lightly. Arsenal has won 10 matches this season by a single goal, which accounts for almost half of their victories in the Premier League (48%). This percentage is the highest for a potential champion since Leicester in 2016, who secured the title with 61% of their wins by a narrow margin. Nevertheless, this method can work – the historical average of wins by a single goal in a championship campaign is 10.7.
The problem is that Arsenal is on track to become the champion with the fewest goals scored from open play in the history of the Premier League. With only 1.15 open play goals per game, they need at least nine goals in the last five matches to break Leicester’s record in 2015-16, when they won the title with 46 open play goals.
On the City side, the difference is that, despite being tied on goals and points, the citizens have scored three more goals than Arsenal, a decisive factor in their current lead. The Gunners’ average goal difference is +1.12 per game, which would place them at the end of the season with a difference of +43. This figure would be the lowest since Leicester’s title win a decade ago, which holds the record of +32.
To put it into perspective, Liverpool won the title in 2019-20 with a goal difference of +45, while the historical average goal difference of Premier League champions is around +50. Manchester City holds the record for the largest difference.
The issue is clear: Arsenal urgently needs to unleash their attack, stop trying to “steal” victories with 1-0 scores, and start imposing themselves with goals and dominance. With a talented squad, including players like Kai Havertz, who, despite not being a natural finisher, has the ability to hold the ball and link the attack, it is essential for the team to unlock that potential. Missed chances, such as Havertz’s two misses in the last game against City, could be fatal in the final stretch.
If Arsenal wants to avoid repeating the drama of the past, like what the Rooney-led United experienced in 2011-12, and secure the title they so desperately desire, Arteta must instill a more aggressive and bold mentality in his team. After all, in such a tightly contested league, victory could very well be decided by a goal difference, and hesitation can be costly.
The clock is ticking, eyes are on London and Manchester, and the Premier League is gearing up for an electrifying end to the season, where Arsenal must decide: continue trying to win 1-0 or risk everything to triumph in style. The title may be just a goal away… or many.
This article first appeared on Apito Final.
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