Betting houses are buzzing with the unprecedented edition of the 2026 World Cup, which, for the first time in history, features 48 teams and sees expectations rise as the knockout stage approaches. France stands out as the favorite to lift the trophy, but surprises and high-risk bets, including an extraordinary investment of $5,000 on the United States at 75-1, promise to shake up the behind-the-scenes of the world's biggest football stage.
With the knockout phase set to begin on July 1, the 32 survivors from the group stage finally know their fates. The United States team, buoyed by victories over Australia and Paraguay and despite a narrow loss to Turkey (3-2), topped Group D with six points and is now preparing to face Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to BetMGM odds, the American team is listed at 25-1 to win the tournament, while France, the favorite, is valued at +188, closely followed by Lionel Messi's Argentina, priced at +450. Spain and England, both with odds of +700, remain the main threats to French dominance, reinforcing the tradition of the Old Continent in decisive phases.
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The relevance of these odds gains even more weight considering the new format of the World Cup, which has democratized access to the knockout stage and opened the door for potential outsiders. Portugal, with odds of 11-1, and Brazil, at 10-1, continue to be regarded as strong contenders, but behind them, they already feel the pressure from teams that, with longer odds, are seeking to stage genuine football fairy tales. Morocco, a semifinalist in the last World Cup, is quoted at 20-1, while teams like Mexico, Norway, and once again the USA share the status of “underdogs” at 25-1. Further back are names like Colombia (33-1), Belgium (40-1), and Switzerland (66-1), followed by a group of teams at 100-1, including Canada, Croatia, and Senegal.
The impact of these odds is significant for both fans and bettors, as evidenced by the historic wager placed even before the World Cup draw in December 2025. An American bettor staked $5,000 on the victory of the USA at 75-1, a move that, should the team achieve the unprecedented feat of winning the title, would yield an impressive $375,000. This type of high-risk betting is contributing to the atmosphere of great unpredictability that characterizes this edition of the tournament.
Mauricio Pochettino, coach of Bosnia and Herzegovina, chose to downplay the favoritism attributed to the USA during a press conference held this Tuesday: “We know that the United States has been growing, but in this World Cup, there are no easy games, and I don’t see clear favorites in this matchup.” This statement came in the wake of the increasing pressure felt by the Americans to finally overcome the stigma of not defeating European teams in knockout stages, a curse that has lasted for five years.
The anticipation is high to see if the “European curse” of the United States will finally be broken, and whether any of the lower-ranked teams will manage to surprise the traditional powerhouses. In addition to the tactical duels and the drama on the field, the battle in the betting houses promises to be as thrilling as the matches themselves, with millions of euros at stake and the concrete possibility of a new world champion. The next step will be crucial: as teams advance in the round of 16, each victory drastically alters the odds and can redefine the entire landscape of the tournament.
Portuguese fans, closely following the national team's journey, know that Portugal, even without being the main favorite, has the means to surprise. With Cristiano Ronaldo leading yet another campaign, the belief in a historic run remains strong. For now, the football world waits expectantly for new surprises and unpredictable twists until the final whistle of this electrifying edition of the World Cup.
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