“Italy cannot endure another failure in the World Cup; the economy is at stake.”

Italy is on the brink of a financial and sporting precipice, and the pressure has never been more intense. With the national team set to face Northern Ireland in the playoff semifinal for the World Cup, the fate of the Azzurri is not just a matter of sporting honor, but also a question of economic survival. Since 2014, Italy has failed to secure a place in the world’s biggest football competition, and the consequences of another elimination would be devastating, both on and off the pitch.

Analysis from La Gazzetta dello Sport reveals that the numbers behind Italy’s potential qualification are alarming. Gennaro Gattuso, the national team coach, has the task of reversing the tide and providing the country with an opportunity for rebirth. The reality is that the Italian economy cannot withstand another failure in the playoffs, having already been eliminated in 2017 and 2022. The financial impact of another absence would be felt across the country.

A study from the University of Surrey, which analyzed OECD data since 1961, highlights that a victory in major tournaments can result in an average increase of 0.25% in GDP over the following two years. This is a figure that cannot be ignored, especially considering that Italy is currently in a phase of stagnant growth. According to Coldiretti, the largest association of agricultural producers in Italy and Europe, the country saw growth between 0.7% and 1% during previous successes in competitions like the 2026 World Cup and Euro 2020.

Furthermore, Italy’s presence at the 2026 World Cup could generate around 90 million euros in advertising and sponsorship revenue, in addition to a payment of 10 million euros to the Italian Football Federation (FIGC) just for participation. The positive impact is not limited to football; industries such as television, hospitality, and betting would be directly benefited by the national team’s qualification.

“The national team competing on the biggest global stage, with an audience of 6 billion people, would represent a breath of fresh air for a country experiencing zero growth,” concludes Gazzetta. Italy is on the brink of a new recovery cycle, especially with the end of the momentum provided by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, from which it received 194.4 billion euros in recent years.

Therefore, the pressure on Gattuso’s team is monumental. The possibility of another disappointment in football is not just a sporting issue; it is a matter that could define the economic future of an entire nation. Italy needs a miracle on the field and a triumph that will resonate throughout the economy. The moment of truth has arrived, and the country’s future is at stake.

This article first appeared on Apito Final.