Augusta National trembles! [Rory McIlroy](https://apitofinal.pt/modalidades/golf/rory-mcilroy-inicia-defesa-do-titulo-com-grande-desempenho-no-masters/) takes the lead at the [2026 Masters](https://apitofinal.pt/modalidades/golf/video-robert-macintyre-em-apuros-apos-gesto-obsceno-no-masters-2026/) and history suggests that the race for the title is practically narrowed down to just 16 players. After a brilliant opening round with a 67, the defending champion joined [Sam Burns](https://apitofinal.pt/modalidades/golf/scottie-scheffler-surpreende-com-declaracao-apos-primeira-ronda-no-masters/) at the top of the leaderboard, both sitting at five under par. [But](https://apitofinal.pt/modalidades/tenis/berrettini-admite-falhas-e-elogia-joao-fonseca-no-masters-de-monte-carlo/) is there still room for surprises, or has the statistic already closed the case?
In 18 appearances at the Masters, this was only the second time McIlroy has achieved such a solid result in the first round. The pressure now rests on him, the clear favorite to don the legendary green jacket. However, who else can dream of victory? Or rather, who is practically out of the running?
Statistics guru Justin Ray shared an impressive fact on social media: in 79 of the 89 editions of the Masters, the winner was at most five strokes behind the leader after the first round. This means that only players who finished Thursday with negative numbers on the scoreboard have a real chance of triumphing.
Only 16 fortunate players can look ahead and believe. Among them are big names like Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed, and Justin Rose. Meanwhile, several pre-tournament favorites have fallen by the wayside, notably Jon Rahm, the 2023 champion, who failed to register a single hole under par, finishing with a disastrous 78 – his first round without a birdie in 37 tournament appearances.
Another name that suffered a fatal blow was Bryson DeChambeau. The American, known for his strength, committed a triple bogey on the 11th hole, finishing the first round with a score of 76. And here’s a historical fact that doesn’t play in his favor: no Masters champion has ever lifted the trophy after making a triple bogey.
Other illustrious names missing from the competition, according to this five-stroke rule, include Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Robert MacIntyre, and Cameron Young. To give an idea of how difficult it is to recover, the record for the worst first-round score by a champion is three over par, set by Arnold Palmer in 1960 and Craig Stadler in 1982.
In summary, the first round may not decide everything, but the story is clear: around 75 players have seen their chances of victory reduced to almost nothing. The 2026 Masters is shaping up to be a fierce duel among a select group – and McIlroy wants more than ever to etch his name forever in Augusta.
Get ready for a week of intense emotions, where every shot could be the difference between glory and an early goodbye. The race for the green jacket is on, and so far, history does not lie. Who will challenge the statistics? Only Augusta National can provide the answer.
This article first appeared on Apito Final.
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