Tickets at astronomical prices, controversies off the pitch, and soaring expectations: the World Cup is finally upon us, and attention is once again focused on what truly matters — football played at the highest level. For those considering investing a small fortune to secure a spot at MetLife Stadium on July 19, the big question remains: who really has a chance of making it there? Betting houses leave no room for doubt and point to the usual suspects as favorites for the title, with Spain, France, and England at the top of the list. But what is the true path for each of these three teams to the most coveted final on the planet? We have prepared a thorough analysis of the likely journey of each European giant towards absolute glory.
Spain emerges as the main favorite, quoted at 9/2, and is determined to return to the top of the football world, two years after achieving a historic fourth European title in Germany. With a golden generation led by the prodigy Lamine Yamal, now 18 years old and already considered by many as the best player in the world, La Roja presents a squad brimming with talent, featuring Pedri, Gavi, Dani Olmo, and Pau Cubarsí, all of whom have Barcelona DNA. Luis de la Fuente has received a theoretically accessible group stage: debuting against debutants Cape Verde in Atlanta on June 15, followed by a clash with Saudi Arabia in the same stadium five days later. These two matches should secure six points and a flurry of goals, before a more challenging encounter with Uruguay in Guadalajara on June 26. The Spaniards are clear favorites to win Group H — bookmakers give them 1/5 odds — and only a catastrophe could derail that objective. If they surpass the group stage, they will likely face Austria or Algeria in Los Angeles on July 2, yet another theoretically easy obstacle. After that, they will await a duel with Croatia or Colombia in the Round of 16, before a possible clash with the USA, Turkey, or Belgium in the quarter-finals, opponents that, on paper, do not intimidate La Roja. Only in the semi-finals should they encounter their first true colossus: France.
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The French, who are seeking an unprecedented third consecutive qualification for a World Cup final, have already proven themselves to be an unrelenting competitive machine. Champions in 2018 and runners-up in 2022, they arrive at this tournament with significant absences: Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud, two pillars of the last decade, will not be available. Nevertheless, Didier Deschamps has an absolutely fearsome attack featuring Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, and Désiré Doué — a quartet that promises to terrorize any opposing defense. The path for the French, however, is much more treacherous. Placed in what many consider the group of death, alongside Norway and Senegal, they are nonetheless favorites to win Group I (2/5 in the betting odds). Should they achieve this goal, they will play on June 30 at MetLife Stadium against one of the best third-placed teams. In the round of 16, they face a high-risk clash with the powerful Germany in Philadelphia, followed by a potential showdown with the Netherlands in the quarter-finals, in Boston, on July 9. If they navigate this true war path successfully, they will likely encounter Spain in the semi-finals on July 14 in Dallas, in a duel that promises to be epic.
England once again carries the usual label of “pretenders or contenders?” Their consecutive appearances in European finals have changed the perception of many fans and critics, and now, with Thomas Tuchel at the helm — a coach accustomed to winning titles — and Harry Kane in absolutely devastating form (61 goals in 51 matches for Bayern Munich this season), there is renewed confidence. The English are clear favorites to lead their group (Group L, 1/4), where they will have to overcome the always treacherous Croatia right at the start, before facing Ghana and Panama. If they advance past the group stage, they will await one of the best third-placed teams in Atlanta on July 1, but then they will have to face co-hosts Mexico at the legendary Estadio Azteca, in front of an inflamed local crowd. In the quarter-finals, fate has them set for a rematch of the 2002 clash with Brazil, and should they progress, the opponent in the semi-finals will most likely be one of their two modern nemeses: Argentina or Portugal, who are expected to face off in the quarters, with the winner heading into a showdown against the English.
The importance of this journey lies in the fact that the three teams carry not only the weight of national expectations, but also the pressure of global betting and public opinion, which anticipates a historic final between two of Europe’s powerhouses. Lamine Yamal, when asked about the responsibility of leading Spain, recently stated: “We know what awaits us, but this group is ready to give everything for our country.” Kylian Mbappé, after the draw, downplayed the toughness of the French group: “If we want to be world champions, we have to win against everyone, no matter the opponent.” Harry Kane, representing the England national team, also expressed confidence: “I’m at the best moment of my career and I believe we can win the trophy.”
The road is long and fraught with pitfalls, but the expectation is that Spain, France, and England will continue to dominate the headlines, fuel dreams, and ignite passions in millions of fans around the world. Now, it remains to be seen who will withstand the pressure, surpass historic rivals, and etch their name in history. With such a demanding schedule, every slip will be fatal, and each victory will bring one of these teams closer to immortality. The world will be watching, and the race for football’s most coveted trophy has already begun—who will fall by the wayside and who will lift the trophy in New York?
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